Crowd Gauge: how crowded are retail traders today?

By Sydney Stones (data and method lead) Last updated 9 October 2026 Data read by our script

How we got this

How: Built by our script from the CFTC's Commitments of Traders report (small traders, "non-reportable" positions), released 9 October 2026; every weekly figure behind it is in the downloadable CSV. How we check How we make money Corrections

0 to 100: how heavily small traders lean long or short against their own last three years.

Above 80: crowded long, near a record
Below 20: crowded short

All markets: 66/100, leaning long. Week before: 63. A year before: 60. Data as of 9 October 2026 (CFTC release).

Crowded shortLeaning shortBalancedLeaning longCrowded long

On 9 October 2026 the Crowd Gauge read 66 out of 100 (leaning long), a 50/50 mix of the average readings of 6 futures markets and 2 crypto markets, each a measure of how crowded small traders are against that market's own last three years, according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).

Futures (6 markets)56Balanced

Crypto75Leaning long

Markets at an extreme6 of 19reading 80+ or 20 and under

Did extremes predict prices?Some, smallour pre-registered test

Positioning, not a forecast. Our test: after crowded long (80+) readings, prices did better than usual over the next 4 weeks (+1.0 percentage points on average, 2018 onwards), so the crowd was on the right side on average, the opposite of "fade the crowd"; after crowded short (20 or less) readings: no reliable difference from normal (full results).

At an extreme this week

US dollar index: 95/100 Crowded long, week before 94
Silver: 88/100 Crowded long, week before 74
Bitcoin: 83/100 Crowded long, week before 66
Gold: 81/100 Crowded long, week before 77
Canadian dollar (CAD/USD): 11/100 Crowded short, week before 21
British pound (GBP/USD): 4/100 Crowded short, week before 15

Biggest moves this week

WTI crude oil: down 18 points to 59/100 (week before 77)
Copper: down 17 points to 65/100 (week before 82)
Bitcoin: up 17 points to 83/100 (week before 66)
Silver: up 14 points to 88/100 (week before 74)
Euro (EUR/USD): up 11 points to 30/100 (week before 19)

Every market

Reading = where small traders' long share sits in its own last 156 weeks (0 = most short, 100 = most long). ● = in the composite:

Futures 50%: E-mini S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, gold, WTI crude, euro, yen
Crypto 50%: bitcoin, ether

Stock indices
Market	Reading	Band	Week before	Small traders long	As of
S&P 500 ●	77	Leaning long	74	64.4%	9 October 2026
Nasdaq-100 ●	55	Balanced	61	57.0%	9 October 2026
Russell 2000	37	Leaning short	38	56.8%	9 October 2026

Metals
Market	Reading	Band	Week before	Small traders long	As of
Gold ●	81	Crowded long	77	75.6%	9 October 2026
Silver	88	Crowded long	74	76.1%	9 October 2026
Copper	65	Leaning long	82	66.4%	9 October 2026

Energy
Market	Reading	Band	Week before	Small traders long	As of
WTI crude oil ●	59	Balanced	77	60.8%	9 October 2026
Natural gas	64	Leaning long	69	58.9%	9 October 2026

Currencies (forex)
Market	Reading	Band	Week before	Small traders long	As of
Euro (EUR/USD) ●	30	Leaning short	19	59.7%	9 October 2026
Japanese yen (JPY/USD) ●	32	Leaning short	42	49.6%	9 October 2026
British pound (GBP/USD)	4	Crowded short	15	37.2%	9 October 2026
Swiss franc (CHF/USD)	20	Leaning short	9	30.3%	9 October 2026
Canadian dollar (CAD/USD)	11	Crowded short	21	40.2%	9 October 2026
Australian dollar (AUD/USD)	69	Leaning long	77	63.2%	9 October 2026
New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD)	35	Leaning short	43	40.6%	9 October 2026
Mexican peso (MXN/USD)	32	Leaning short	35	60.9%	9 October 2026
US dollar index	95	Crowded long	94	69.7%	9 October 2026

Crypto
Market	Reading	Band	Week before	Small traders long	As of
Bitcoin ●	83	Crowded long	66	62.3%	9 October 2026
Ether ●	68	Leaning long	69	68.1%	9 October 2026

Not shown yet (not enough history): Solana. They appear once a source has a year of weekly or 180 days of daily readings.

History

Composite, last three years. Lines at 20, 40, 60 and 80 mark the bands. Every value is in crowd-gauge-history.csv.

Composite since 6 January 2006. Before bitcoin futures had a year of history (late 2018), the composite is the futures half only.

Crowd Fear & Greed

The same data read as fear or greed: how long small traders are, plus how fast they added longs over four weeks.

Crypto: 66/100 Greed
Bitcoin: 72/100 Greed
Stock market: 42/100 Fear

Crowd Fear & Greed · Monthly archive

Today's poll: are you long or short?

One answer per market per day
Published as open data
Weight 0 until 200+ answers a day for 30 days
No personal data

Sources and what counts

Source	In the Gauge?
CFTC Commitments of Traders, non-reportable positions	Yes. Public US government data, weekly, history to the 1990s
Bybit and Binance all-account long/short ratios	Not yet. They count once our own collection has 180 days
Our daily poll (above)	Shown, weight 0 until it has 200+ answers a day for 30 days
Broker client sentiment (Myfxbook, IG, OANDA)	No. We have asked for permission to use it; until then it carries no weight

Per-market detail, including which sources feed each market: CFTC COT (small traders) for all 19 markets shown today.

Download

crowd-gauge-history.csvOne row per date and scope (composite, futures, crypto, each market): reading, band, number of sources.
crowd-gauge-observations.csvCFTC small-trader long, short, long share, percentile and 4-week flow percentile.
crowd-gauge-latest.jsonToday's readings for every market, class and the composite; each source's status; newest CFTC file fingerprint.
crowd-gauge-backtest.jsonThe full backtest results.

Cite this

CC BY 4.0: free to use, share and adapt. Credit TradingLookup and link to this page.

Suggested citation

TradingLookup (2026). Crowd Gauge, method v1.0, data as of 9 October 2026. https://tradinglookup.com/data/crowd-gauge/. Licence: CC BY 4.0.

Quotable line (permanent link: /data/crowd-gauge/#stat)

Related: CFD loss-rate series (how many retail CFD accounts lose money, by provider). Spotted a mistake? Tell us; fixes are logged on the corrections page.