Risk of ruin calculator: your odds of hitting the max loss before the target
By Alexander Burnett (editor) Last updated
How we got this
How: The simulation runs in your browser on the numbers you enter, with a fixed random seed so results repeat; firm presets are each firm’s own published drawdown type or pass rate, quoted and linked. How we checkHow we make moneyCorrections
A challenge is a race between the target and the max-loss line. See how often you pass, fail or run out of days.
- 10,000 simulated challenges
- Static, end-of-day or intraday
- Runs in your browser
Turn on JavaScript to run the simulation. The worked example below shows the results for the default inputs.
Worked example: the default inputs
- Account$50,000
- Profit target$3,000
- Max loss, end-of-day$2,000
- Trading days30
- Win rate45%
- Average win1.5R
- Risk a trade$200
- Trades a day3
Passed (simulated)48.8%Failed 30.6% · out of days 20.7% · median 17 days to pass
Real outcomes are lower. Topstep: From January through December 2025, (a) 16.8% of all Trading Combines initiated were successfully completed and afforded the opportunity to advance to the Funded Level
(topstep.com, measured, read ). A firm-wide figure, not your odds.
- Your inputs stay in your browser
- Firm presets: the firm's own figures, read
- A calculator, not advice
How it works
One simulated challenge
- Each tradewins average win × risk at your win rate, else loses the risk. Same size, independent.
- Max-loss linestart − max loss. Static never moves, end-of-day trails the best close, intraday trails each trade. A lock caps it. It never falls.
- Daily loss limitthe loss is cut at the limit, then trading stops for the day or the challenge ends, as you choose.
- Passbalance reaches start + target on or after the minimum days. Trading continues until the minimum is met.
- Failbalance touches the max-loss line, or the daily limit ends the challenge.
- Time-outthe maximum days run out. With no limit we stop at 250 days.
The outputs
- Days to passmedian and 80th percentile, over passed runs only.
- Expected attempts1 ÷ pass rate. Expected spend = fee × attempts. No resets, rebills or activation.
- Expectancywin rate × average win − (1 − win rate), in R. × risk for dollars.
- Repeatablea seeded generator (mulberry32): same inputs and seed, same result.
Limits. Intraday trailing uses closed trades only, so it is kinder than the real rule. No slippage, fees, consistency rules or news bans. Use it to compare choices, not to forecast.
Measured and judged. Firm presets and pass rates are measured (dated, linked). Every simulated figure is judged. A firm's pass rate covers all its traders, not your odds.