Nasdaq-100: are retail traders long or short?
Nasdaq-100: 55/100, balanced. Small traders hold 42,031 long and 31,708 short contracts: 57.0% long. Week before: 61. A year before: 59. Three-year range: 11 to 100.
On 9 October 2026 small traders in CME E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures were 57.0% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 55 out of 100 (balanced), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).
- Data as of
- All markets
- Method
The contract behind the reading
- Contract
- CME E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures
- CFTC contract code
- 209742
- Contract size
The unit of trading shall be $20.00 times the Index
- A long position is
- a bet that the Nasdaq-100 index rises.
- In the composite
- Yes, in the futures half
Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in CME E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.
What today's reading means
Nasdaq-100 reads 55: small traders' long share is above about 55% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 11 September 2026. The last crowded-short week (20 or less) was 7 August 2026.
Record readings for Nasdaq-100
- Highest Crowd Gauge reading
- 99.7
- Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
- 0.3
- Most long small traders have been
- 95.1% long
- Least long
- 19.2% long
How often Nasdaq-100 hits an extreme
| Band | Weeks | Share of weeks | Separate spells | Longest spell | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (80+) | 219 | 20% | 31 | 65 weeks, to 7 February 2025 | 11 September 2026 |
| Crowded short (20 or less) | 215 | 20% | 37 | 18 weeks, to 3 May 2019 | 7 August 2026 |
History
Last 12 weekly readings
| Released | Reading | Band | Change | Long | Short | Long share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.5 | Balanced | −5 | 42,031 | 31,708 | 57.0% | |
| 60.6 | Leaning long | +6 | 39,998 | 29,654 | 57.4% | |
| 54.2 | Balanced | −21 | 40,610 | 30,997 | 56.7% | |
| 75.3 | Leaning long | −19 | 49,391 | 34,251 | 59.1% | |
| 94.6 | Crowded long | +3 | 46,401 | 26,278 | 63.8% | |
| 92.0 | Crowded long | −8 | 48,072 | 28,542 | 62.8% | |
| 99.7 | Crowded long | +1 | 51,536 | 24,439 | 67.8% | |
| 99.0 | Crowded long | +1 | 48,810 | 26,047 | 65.2% | |
| 98.4 | Crowded long | +87 | 47,112 | 25,285 | 65.1% | |
| 11.2 | Crowded short | −48 | 39,765 | 40,568 | 49.5% | |
| 59.3 | Balanced | +10 | 42,151 | 32,119 | 56.8% | |
| 49.7 | Balanced | +18 | 40,668 | 33,203 | 55.1% |
Did extreme Nasdaq-100 readings come before price moves?
| Period, horizon | After 80 or more | After 20 or less | All weeks | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 on, 1 week | 0.35% | 0.31% | 0.33% | 457 |
| 2018 on, 4 weeks | 1.63% | 0.49% | 1.43% | 454 |
| 2018 on, 12 weeks | 5.24% | 2.91% | 4.13% | 446 |
| 2006–2017, 1 week | 0.37% | 0.65% | 0.23% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 4 weeks | 0.94% | 2.05% | 1.00% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 12 weeks | 1.28% | 6.93% | 2.86% | 626 |
From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long Nasdaq-100 reading averaged 1.63%, against 1.43% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 0.49%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 10; crowded-short: 18.
History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.
Sources for Nasdaq-100
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 209742). 1425 weekly reports since 22 June 1999.
- Stock market Crowd Fear & Greed
- S&P 500 77/100
- Russell 2000 37/100