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    S&P 500: are retail traders long or short?

    Last updated Data read by our script

    How we got this

    How: Built by our script from the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report for CME E-mini S&P 500 futures: the positions of small ("non-reportable") traders, released 9 October 2026. How we checkHow we make moneyCorrections

    S&P 500: 77/100, leaning long. Small traders hold 248,117 long and 137,112 short contracts: 64.4% long. Week before: 74. A year before: 71. Three-year range: 30 to 100.

    On 9 October 2026 small traders in CME E-mini S&P 500 futures were 64.4% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 77 out of 100 (leaning long), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).

    The CFTC report released that day, positions as of the Tuesday before.

    The contract behind the reading

    Contract
    CME E-mini S&P 500 futures
    CFTC contract code
    13874A 1,512 weekly reports since 16 September 1997
    Contract size
    The unit of trading shall be $50.00 times the Index CME Group contract specs, read 14 October 2026
    A long position is
    a bet that the S&P 500 index rises.
    In the composite
    Yes, in the futures half

    Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in CME E-mini S&P 500 futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.

    What today's reading means

    S&P 500 reads 77: small traders' long share is above about 77% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 11 September 2026. The last crowded-short week (20 or less) was 31 March 2023.

    Record readings for S&P 500

    Highest Crowd Gauge reading
    99.7 18 weeks, first on 11 May 2012, most recently 16 January 2026
    Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
    0.3 17 weeks, first on 6 July 2007, most recently 23 September 2022
    Most long small traders have been
    77.7% long positions as of 14 November 2006
    Least long
    29.9% long positions as of 17 March 2009

    Readings from 6 January 2006 (1,084 weeks). Long share from 3 January 2006, in the CFTC contract above.

    How often S&P 500 hits an extreme

    S&P 500: weeks at an extreme, 6 January 2006 to 9 October 2026
    BandWeeksShare of weeksSeparate spellsLongest spellMost recent
    Crowded long (80+) 210 19% 23 34 weeks, to 9 August 2024 11 September 2026
    Crowded short (20 or less) 226 21% 28 30 weeks, to 7 August 2009 31 March 2023

    A new spell starts after 4 or more weeks outside the band, the same rule as the backtest's "episodes". Weeks are counted from the first published reading above.

    History

    S&P 500: Crowd Gauge, last three yearsWeekly readings for S&P 500, 0 to 100, to 2026-10-09. Latest 77.0204060801002024202520262026-10-09: 77
    Last three years, weekly. Lines at 20, 40, 60 and 80 mark the bands.
    S&P 500: Crowd Gauge, full historyWeekly readings for S&P 500 from 2006-01-06 to 2026-10-09.02040608010020072010201320162019202220252026-10-09: 77
    From 6 January 2006, the first week with three years of history behind it (or one year for newer contracts).

    Last 12 weekly readings

    S&P 500: Crowd Gauge and CFTC small-trader positions (contract 13874A), latest first
    ReleasedReadingBandChangeLongShortLong share
    76.6Leaning long+3248,117137,11264.4%
    74.0Leaning long+7246,863139,64563.9%
    67.0Leaning long+33250,187145,83963.2%
    34.3Leaning short−56284,440193,17059.6%
    90.1Crowded long+17263,462137,40965.7%
    72.8Leaning long−22256,699146,64563.6%
    94.6Crowded long+11270,688138,62966.1%
    83.7Crowded long−8268,530144,41765.0%
    91.4Crowded long+20272,563141,40365.8%
    71.5Leaning long−6265,488153,85463.3%
    77.2Leaning long−10257,768144,64364.1%
    86.9Crowded long−9263,450139,74765.3%

    Change: points on the 0 to 100 scale against the week before. Positions are as of the Tuesday before each release.

    Did extreme S&P 500 readings come before price moves?

    Average forward return in our pre-registered test (price series: FRED SP500). 2018 onwards is the test; 2006 to 2017 is look-only.

    S&P 500: average return after extreme readings vs all weeks
    Period, horizonAfter 80 or moreAfter 20 or lessAll weeksWeeks
    2018 on, 1 week0.30% n=1380.09% n=490.23%457
    2018 on, 4 weeks1.40% n=1380.91% n=490.97%454
    2018 on, 12 weeks4.14% n=1333.02% n=492.89%446
    2006–2017, 1 week1.16% n=721.02% n=1771.09%626
    2006–2017, 4 weeks1.76% n=721.68% n=1771.76%626
    2006–2017, 12 weeks6.55% n=726.13% n=1776.31%626

    From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long S&P 500 reading averaged 1.40%, against 0.97% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 0.91%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 11; crowded-short: 6.

    History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.

    Sources for S&P 500

    Download every number: history CSV, COT observations CSV (CC BY 4.0). Spotted a mistake? Tell us.

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