British pound (GBP/USD): are retail traders long or short?

By Sydney Stones (data and method lead) Last updated 9 October 2026 Data read by our script

How we got this

How: Built by our script from the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report for CME British pound futures: the positions of small ("non-reportable") traders, released 9 October 2026. How we check How we make money Corrections

British pound (GBP/USD): 4/100, crowded short. Small traders hold 20,627 long and 34,883 short contracts: 37.2% long. Week before: 15. A year before: 44. Three-year range: 0 to 99.

Crowded shortLeaning shortBalancedLeaning longCrowded long

On 9 October 2026 small traders in CME British pound futures were 37.2% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 4 out of 100 (crowded short), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).

Data as of 9 October 2026
All markets
Method

The CFTC report released that day, positions as of the Tuesday before.

The contract behind the reading

Contract: CME British pound futures
CFTC contract code: 096742 1,883 weekly reports since 29 April 1988
A long position is: a bet that the British pound rises against the US dollar. The contract is priced in US dollars per GBP, so it moves with GBP/USD.
In the composite: No: its own reading only

Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in CME British pound futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.

What today's reading means

British pound (GBP/USD) reads 4: small traders' long share is above about 4% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 13 February 2026.

Record readings for British pound (GBP/USD)

Highest Crowd Gauge reading: 99.7 14 weeks, first on 12 November 2010, most recently 23 April 2021
Lowest Crowd Gauge reading: 0.3 13 weeks, first on 6 January 2006, most recently 3 July 2026
Most long small traders have been: 72.3% long positions as of 25 September 2012
Least long: 23.4% long positions as of 5 March 2013

Readings from 6 January 2006 (1,084 weeks). Long share from 3 January 2006, in the CFTC contract above.

How often British pound (GBP/USD) hits an extreme

British pound (GBP/USD): weeks at an extreme, 6 January 2006 to 9 October 2026
Band	Weeks	Share of weeks	Separate spells	Longest spell	Most recent
Crowded long (80+)	222	20%	24	43 weeks, to 27 April 2018	13 February 2026
Crowded short (20 or less)	237	22%	26	19 weeks, to 12 December 2008	9 October 2026

A new spell starts after 4 or more weeks outside the band, the same rule as the backtest's "episodes". Weeks are counted from the first published reading above.

History

Last three years, weekly. Lines at 20, 40, 60 and 80 mark the bands.

From 6 January 2006, the first week with three years of history behind it (or one year for newer contracts).

Last 12 weekly readings

British pound (GBP/USD): Crowd Gauge and CFTC small-trader positions (contract 096742), latest first
Released	Reading	Band	Change	Long	Short	Long share
9 October 2026	3.5	Crowded short	−12	20,627	34,883	37.2%
2 October 2026	15.1	Crowded short	−13	24,496	34,303	41.7%
25 September 2026	27.9	Leaning short	−22	25,203	30,315	45.4%
18 September 2026	49.7	Balanced	−6	111,818	110,168	50.4%
11 September 2026	56.1	Balanced	−8	31,683	29,949	51.4%
4 September 2026	63.8	Leaning long	−12	31,789	28,017	53.2%
28 August 2026	75.3	Leaning long	+11	32,834	26,973	54.9%
21 August 2026	64.4	Leaning long	+28	32,200	27,980	53.5%
14 August 2026	36.9	Leaning short	+9	25,998	28,664	47.6%
7 August 2026	27.9	Leaning short	+10	23,651	28,482	45.4%
31 July 2026	18.3	Crowded short	−27	23,686	31,682	42.8%
24 July 2026	45.2	Balanced	+21	29,437	30,175	49.4%

Change: points on the 0 to 100 scale against the week before. Positions are as of the Tuesday before each release.

Did extreme British pound (GBP/USD) readings come before price moves?

Average forward return in our pre-registered test (price series: FRED DEXUSUK). 2018 onwards is the test; 2006 to 2017 is look-only.

British pound (GBP/USD): average return after extreme readings vs all weeks
Period, horizon	After 80 or more	After 20 or less	All weeks	Weeks
2018 on, 1 week	-0.07% n=102	-0.05% n=71	0.01%	456
2018 on, 4 weeks	-0.18% n=102	0.48% n=71	0.00%	453
2018 on, 12 weeks	-1.57% n=102	0.90% n=70	-0.07%	445
2006–2017, 1 week	-0.05% n=120	-0.15% n=164	-0.04%	626
2006–2017, 4 weeks	-0.20% n=120	-0.31% n=164	-0.15%	626
2006–2017, 12 weeks	0.01% n=120	-1.61% n=164	-0.41%	626

From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long British pound (GBP/USD) reading averaged -0.18%, against 0.00% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 0.48%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 15; crowded-short: 12.

History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.

Sources for British pound (GBP/USD)

CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 096742). 1883 weekly reports since 29 April 1988.

Download every number: history CSV, COT observations CSV (CC BY 4.0). Spotted a mistake? Tell us.

British pound (GBP/USD): are retail traders long or short?

The contract behind the reading

What today's reading means

Record readings for British pound (GBP/USD)

How often British pound (GBP/USD) hits an extreme

History

Last 12 weekly readings

Did extreme British pound (GBP/USD) readings come before price moves?

Sources for British pound (GBP/USD)

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