New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD): are retail traders long or short?
New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD): 35/100, leaning short. Small traders hold 4,404 long and 6,438 short contracts: 40.6% long. Week before: 43. A year before: 34. Three-year range: 0 to 100.
On 9 October 2026 small traders in CME New Zealand dollar futures were 40.6% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 35 out of 100 (leaning short), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).
- Data as of
- All markets
- Method
The contract behind the reading
- Contract
- CME New Zealand dollar futures
- CFTC contract code
- 112741
- A long position is
- a bet that the New Zealand dollar rises against the US dollar. The contract is priced in US dollars per NZD, so it moves with NZD/USD.
- In the composite
- No: its own reading only
Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in CME New Zealand dollar futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.
What today's reading means
New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) reads 35: small traders' long share is above about 35% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 27 February 2026. The last crowded-short week (20 or less) was 7 August 2026.
Record readings for New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD)
- Highest Crowd Gauge reading
- 99.7
- Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
- 0.3
- Most long small traders have been
- 97.7% long
- Least long
- 19.5% long
How often New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) hits an extreme
| Band | Weeks | Share of weeks | Separate spells | Longest spell | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (80+) | 207 | 19% | 33 | 49 weeks, to 18 June 2021 | 27 February 2026 |
| Crowded short (20 or less) | 216 | 20% | 23 | 28 weeks, to 30 November 2018 | 7 August 2026 |
History
Last 12 weekly readings
| Released | Reading | Band | Change | Long | Short | Long share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.9 | Leaning short | −8 | 4,404 | 6,438 | 40.6% | |
| 42.6 | Balanced | −10 | 4,260 | 5,939 | 41.8% | |
| 52.9 | Balanced | −17 | 3,901 | 4,932 | 44.2% | |
| 69.6 | Leaning long | +6 | 48,402 | 48,736 | 49.8% | |
| 63.1 | Leaning long | −1 | 4,520 | 5,117 | 46.9% | |
| 63.8 | Leaning long | +4 | 4,339 | 4,894 | 47.0% | |
| 59.9 | Balanced | +24 | 4,052 | 4,917 | 45.2% | |
| 36.2 | Leaning short | +4 | 3,362 | 5,064 | 39.9% | |
| 32.4 | Leaning short | +29 | 3,455 | 5,500 | 38.6% | |
| 2.9 | Crowded short | −8 | 2,662 | 6,146 | 30.2% | |
| 11.2 | Crowded short | −1 | 3,050 | 5,919 | 34.0% | |
| 12.5 | Crowded short | +12 | 2,951 | 5,605 | 34.5% |
Did extreme New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) readings come before price moves?
| Period, horizon | After 80 or more | After 20 or less | All weeks | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 on, 1 week | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.06% | 456 |
| 2018 on, 4 weeks | -0.40% | 0.06% | -0.22% | 453 |
| 2018 on, 12 weeks | -0.45% | 0.82% | -0.61% | 445 |
| 2006–2017, 1 week | 0.01% | -0.03% | 0.01% | 623 |
| 2006–2017, 4 weeks | 0.42% | -0.07% | 0.04% | 623 |
| 2006–2017, 12 weeks | 1.24% | -1.29% | 0.17% | 623 |
From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) reading averaged -0.40%, against -0.22% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 0.06%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 11; crowded-short: 11.
History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.
Sources for New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD)
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 112741). 1157 weekly reports since 5 January 1999.
- Forex sentiment: every currency
- Euro (EUR/USD) 30/100
- Japanese yen (JPY/USD) 32/100
- British pound (GBP/USD) 4/100
- Swiss franc (CHF/USD) 20/100
- Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) 11/100
- Australian dollar (AUD/USD) 69/100
- Mexican peso (MXN/USD) 32/100
- US dollar index 95/100