Japanese yen (JPY/USD): are retail traders long or short?
Japanese yen (JPY/USD): 32/100, leaning short. Small traders hold 34,535 long and 35,111 short contracts: 49.6% long. Week before: 42. A year before: 53. Three-year range: 4 to 100.
On 9 October 2026 small traders in CME Japanese yen futures were 49.6% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 32 out of 100 (leaning short), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).
- Data as of
- All markets
- Method
The contract behind the reading
- Contract
- CME Japanese yen futures
- CFTC contract code
- 097741
- A long position is
- a bet that the Japanese yen rises against the US dollar. The contract is priced in US dollars per JPY, so it moves with JPY/USD and against the more common USD/JPY quote.
- In the composite
- Yes, in the futures half
Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in CME Japanese yen futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.
What today's reading means
Japanese yen (JPY/USD) reads 32: small traders' long share is above about 32% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 19 September 2025. The last crowded-short week (20 or less) was 4 September 2026.
Record readings for Japanese yen (JPY/USD)
- Highest Crowd Gauge reading
- 99.7
- Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
- 0.3
- Most long small traders have been
- 73.3% long
- Least long
- 15.2% long
How often Japanese yen (JPY/USD) hits an extreme
| Band | Weeks | Share of weeks | Separate spells | Longest spell | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (80+) | 240 | 22% | 19 | 37 weeks, to 26 August 2016 | 19 September 2025 |
| Crowded short (20 or less) | 210 | 19% | 27 | 21 weeks, to 8 March 2013 | 4 September 2026 |
History
Last 12 weekly readings
| Released | Reading | Band | Change | Long | Short | Long share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.7 | Leaning short | −10 | 34,535 | 35,111 | 49.6% | |
| 42.0 | Balanced | −28 | 34,967 | 34,422 | 50.4% | |
| 70.2 | Leaning long | +23 | 38,097 | 33,665 | 53.1% | |
| 47.1 | Balanced | −14 | 151,709 | 147,394 | 50.7% | |
| 61.2 | Leaning long | +48 | 42,640 | 39,395 | 52.0% | |
| 13.1 | Crowded short | −3 | 33,223 | 38,557 | 46.3% | |
| 16.4 | Crowded short | +13 | 34,544 | 39,083 | 46.9% | |
| 3.5 | Crowded short | −5 | 32,579 | 40,760 | 44.4% | |
| 8.7 | Crowded short | −6 | 34,032 | 40,716 | 45.5% | |
| 14.4 | Crowded short | −55 | 34,510 | 39,605 | 46.6% | |
| 69.6 | Leaning long | +44 | 47,319 | 41,932 | 53.0% | |
| 25.3 | Leaning short | −10 | 44,065 | 46,838 | 48.5% |
Did extreme Japanese yen (JPY/USD) readings come before price moves?
| Period, horizon | After 80 or more | After 20 or less | All weeks | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 on, 1 week | 0.03% | -0.21% | -0.08% | 456 |
| 2018 on, 4 weeks | -0.27% | -0.76% | -0.33% | 453 |
| 2018 on, 12 weeks | -1.47% | -4.02% | -1.04% | 445 |
| 2006–2017, 1 week | 0.36% | -0.07% | 0.01% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 4 weeks | 0.98% | -0.09% | 0.04% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 12 weeks | 2.45% | -0.44% | 0.14% | 626 |
From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long Japanese yen (JPY/USD) reading averaged -0.27%, against -0.33% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, -0.76%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 9; crowded-short: 5.
History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.
Sources for Japanese yen (JPY/USD)
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 097741). 1937 weekly reports since 15 January 1986.
- Forex sentiment: every currency
- Euro (EUR/USD) 30/100
- British pound (GBP/USD) 4/100
- Swiss franc (CHF/USD) 20/100
- Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) 11/100
- Australian dollar (AUD/USD) 69/100
- New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) 35/100
- Mexican peso (MXN/USD) 32/100
- US dollar index 95/100