Australian dollar (AUD/USD): are retail traders long or short?
Australian dollar (AUD/USD): 69/100, leaning long. Small traders hold 32,396 long and 18,900 short contracts: 63.2% long. Week before: 77. A year before: 94. Three-year range: 4 to 100.
On 9 October 2026 small traders in CME Australian dollar futures were 63.2% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 69 out of 100 (leaning long), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).
- Data as of
- All markets
- Method
The contract behind the reading
- Contract
- CME Australian dollar futures
- CFTC contract code
- 232741
- A long position is
- a bet that the Australian dollar rises against the US dollar. The contract is priced in US dollars per AUD, so it moves with AUD/USD.
- In the composite
- No: its own reading only
Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in CME Australian dollar futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.
What today's reading means
Australian dollar (AUD/USD) reads 69: small traders' long share is above about 69% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 25 September 2026. The last crowded-short week (20 or less) was 26 April 2024.
Record readings for Australian dollar (AUD/USD)
- Highest Crowd Gauge reading
- 99.7
- Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
- 0.3
- Most long small traders have been
- 84.2% long
- Least long
- 23.0% long
How often Australian dollar (AUD/USD) hits an extreme
| Band | Weeks | Share of weeks | Separate spells | Longest spell | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (80+) | 226 | 21% | 30 | 36 weeks, to 26 March 2021 | 25 September 2026 |
| Crowded short (20 or less) | 249 | 23% | 29 | 21 weeks, to 27 September 2013 | 26 April 2024 |
History
Last 12 weekly readings
| Released | Reading | Band | Change | Long | Short | Long share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68.9 | Leaning long | −8 | 32,396 | 18,900 | 63.2% | |
| 76.6 | Leaning long | −8 | 33,612 | 16,721 | 66.8% | |
| 84.3 | Crowded long | +42 | 35,353 | 15,699 | 69.3% | |
| 42.0 | Balanced | −38 | 207,883 | 188,802 | 52.4% | |
| 80.5 | Crowded long | −5 | 37,079 | 17,893 | 67.5% | |
| 85.6 | Crowded long | −13 | 36,240 | 15,644 | 69.9% | |
| 98.4 | Crowded long | +8 | 39,765 | 14,384 | 73.4% | |
| 90.7 | Crowded long | −5 | 38,603 | 15,910 | 70.8% | |
| 95.8 | Crowded long | +8 | 39,205 | 14,843 | 72.5% | |
| 88.1 | Crowded long | +8 | 36,579 | 15,713 | 70.0% | |
| 79.8 | Leaning long | −12 | 34,278 | 17,813 | 65.8% | |
| 91.4 | Crowded long | +8 | 36,775 | 15,177 | 70.8% |
Did extreme Australian dollar (AUD/USD) readings come before price moves?
| Period, horizon | After 80 or more | After 20 or less | All weeks | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 on, 1 week | -0.02% | 0.30% | -0.02% | 456 |
| 2018 on, 4 weeks | 0.05% | 0.52% | -0.10% | 453 |
| 2018 on, 12 weeks | 0.27% | 1.14% | -0.28% | 445 |
| 2006–2017, 1 week | -0.06% | -0.13% | 0.02% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 4 weeks | -0.32% | -0.16% | 0.05% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 12 weeks | -0.54% | -0.29% | 0.15% | 626 |
From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long Australian dollar (AUD/USD) reading averaged 0.05%, against -0.10% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 0.52%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 11; crowded-short: 14.
History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.
Sources for Australian dollar (AUD/USD)
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 232741). 1801 weekly reports since 30 January 1987.
- Forex sentiment: every currency
- Euro (EUR/USD) 30/100
- Japanese yen (JPY/USD) 32/100
- British pound (GBP/USD) 4/100
- Swiss franc (CHF/USD) 20/100
- Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) 11/100
- New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) 35/100
- Mexican peso (MXN/USD) 32/100
- US dollar index 95/100