Canadian dollar (CAD/USD): are retail traders long or short?
Canadian dollar (CAD/USD): 11/100, crowded short. Small traders hold 27,234 long and 40,573 short contracts: 40.2% long. Week before: 21. A year before: 0. Three-year range: 0 to 92.
On 9 October 2026 small traders in CME Canadian dollar futures were 40.2% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 11 out of 100 (crowded short), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).
- Data as of
- All markets
- Method
The contract behind the reading
- Contract
- CME Canadian dollar futures
- CFTC contract code
- 090741
- A long position is
- a bet that the Canadian dollar rises against the US dollar. The contract is priced in US dollars per CAD, so it moves with CAD/USD and against the more common USD/CAD quote.
- In the composite
- No: its own reading only
Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in CME Canadian dollar futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.
What today's reading means
Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) reads 11: small traders' long share is above about 11% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 20 March 2026.
Record readings for Canadian dollar (CAD/USD)
- Highest Crowd Gauge reading
- 99.7
- Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
- 0.3
- Most long small traders have been
- 79.0% long
- Least long
- 30.4% long
How often Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) hits an extreme
| Band | Weeks | Share of weeks | Separate spells | Longest spell | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (80+) | 233 | 21% | 22 | 33 weeks, to 11 December 2009 | 20 March 2026 |
| Crowded short (20 or less) | 317 | 29% | 31 | 34 weeks, to 20 September 2013 | 9 October 2026 |
History
Last 12 weekly readings
| Released | Reading | Band | Change | Long | Short | Long share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.6 | Crowded short | −10 | 27,234 | 40,573 | 40.2% | |
| 20.8 | Leaning short | −40 | 28,098 | 38,991 | 41.9% | |
| 61.2 | Leaning long | +39 | 30,451 | 33,239 | 47.8% | |
| 22.1 | Leaning short | −34 | 26,374 | 35,720 | 42.5% | |
| 56.1 | Balanced | +24 | 29,559 | 33,489 | 46.9% | |
| 32.4 | Leaning short | −32 | 26,348 | 33,487 | 44.0% | |
| 64.4 | Leaning long | +5 | 32,683 | 34,392 | 48.7% | |
| 59.3 | Balanced | +17 | 31,601 | 34,814 | 47.6% | |
| 42.0 | Balanced | +10 | 31,366 | 37,690 | 45.4% | |
| 32.4 | Leaning short | +15 | 29,943 | 37,856 | 44.2% | |
| 17.0 | Crowded short | +3 | 29,707 | 42,418 | 41.2% | |
| 14.4 | Crowded short | −6 | 28,617 | 41,170 | 41.0% |
Did extreme Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) readings come before price moves?
| Period, horizon | After 80 or more | After 20 or less | All weeks | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 on, 1 week | -0.07% | 0.07% | -0.03% | 456 |
| 2018 on, 4 weeks | -0.18% | 0.33% | -0.11% | 453 |
| 2018 on, 12 weeks | -0.70% | 0.59% | -0.27% | 445 |
| 2006–2017, 1 week | 0.04% | -0.21% | -0.03% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 4 weeks | 0.25% | -0.72% | -0.07% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 12 weeks | 0.63% | -1.09% | -0.17% | 626 |
From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) reading averaged -0.18%, against -0.11% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 0.33%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 11; crowded-short: 17.
History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.
Sources for Canadian dollar (CAD/USD)
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 090741). 1938 weekly reports since 15 January 1986.
- Forex sentiment: every currency
- Euro (EUR/USD) 30/100
- Japanese yen (JPY/USD) 32/100
- British pound (GBP/USD) 4/100
- Swiss franc (CHF/USD) 20/100
- Australian dollar (AUD/USD) 69/100
- New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) 35/100
- Mexican peso (MXN/USD) 32/100
- US dollar index 95/100