Mexican peso (MXN/USD): are retail traders long or short?
Mexican peso (MXN/USD): 32/100, leaning short. Small traders hold 5,601 long and 3,601 short contracts: 60.9% long. Week before: 35. A year before: 68. Three-year range: 0 to 100.
On 9 October 2026 small traders in CME Mexican peso futures were 60.9% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 32 out of 100 (leaning short), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).
- Data as of
- All markets
- Method
The contract behind the reading
- Contract
- CME Mexican peso futures
- CFTC contract code
- 095741
- A long position is
- a bet that the Mexican peso rises against the US dollar. The contract is priced in US dollars per MXN, so it moves with MXN/USD and against the more common USD/MXN quote.
- In the composite
- No: its own reading only
Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in CME Mexican peso futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.
What today's reading means
Mexican peso (MXN/USD) reads 32: small traders' long share is above about 32% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 28 August 2026. The last crowded-short week (20 or less) was 11 April 2025.
Record readings for Mexican peso (MXN/USD)
- Highest Crowd Gauge reading
- 99.7
- Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
- 0.3
- Most long small traders have been
- 99.5% long
- Least long
- 2.3% long
How often Mexican peso (MXN/USD) hits an extreme
| Band | Weeks | Share of weeks | Separate spells | Longest spell | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (80+) | 269 | 25% | 35 | 34 weeks, to 13 October 2017 | 28 August 2026 |
| Crowded short (20 or less) | 220 | 20% | 24 | 37 weeks, to 12 June 2015 | 11 April 2025 |
History
Last 12 weekly readings
| Released | Reading | Band | Change | Long | Short | Long share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.4 | Leaning short | −3 | 5,601 | 3,601 | 60.9% | |
| 34.9 | Leaning short | −29 | 5,629 | 3,434 | 62.1% | |
| 63.8 | Leaning long | +39 | 7,476 | 3,023 | 71.2% | |
| 24.7 | Leaning short | −27 | 68,934 | 65,019 | 51.5% | |
| 51.6 | Balanced | −7 | 9,429 | 4,230 | 69.0% | |
| 58.7 | Balanced | −29 | 7,557 | 3,087 | 71.0% | |
| 88.1 | Crowded long | +31 | 8,881 | 2,864 | 75.6% | |
| 56.7 | Balanced | −31 | 8,767 | 3,634 | 70.7% | |
| 87.5 | Crowded long | −4 | 8,980 | 2,914 | 75.5% | |
| 92.0 | Crowded long | +13 | 7,717 | 2,407 | 76.2% | |
| 79.2 | Leaning long | +26 | 7,022 | 2,599 | 73.0% | |
| 53.5 | Balanced | −16 | 6,900 | 3,105 | 69.0% |
Did extreme Mexican peso (MXN/USD) readings come before price moves?
| Period, horizon | After 80 or more | After 20 or less | All weeks | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 on, 1 week | 0.04% | 0.23% | 0.01% | 456 |
| 2018 on, 4 weeks | -0.00% | 0.23% | 0.08% | 453 |
| 2018 on, 12 weeks | 0.26% | 0.62% | 0.24% | 445 |
| 2006–2017, 1 week | -0.02% | -0.15% | -0.10% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 4 weeks | 0.04% | -0.50% | -0.37% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 12 weeks | -0.25% | -1.01% | -1.12% | 626 |
From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long Mexican peso (MXN/USD) reading averaged -0.00%, against 0.08% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 0.23%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 17; crowded-short: 9.
History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.
Sources for Mexican peso (MXN/USD)
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 095741). 1639 weekly reports since 23 May 1995.
- Forex sentiment: every currency
- Euro (EUR/USD) 30/100
- Japanese yen (JPY/USD) 32/100
- British pound (GBP/USD) 4/100
- Swiss franc (CHF/USD) 20/100
- Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) 11/100
- Australian dollar (AUD/USD) 69/100
- New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) 35/100
- US dollar index 95/100