Euro (EUR/USD): are retail traders long or short?
Euro (EUR/USD): 30/100, leaning short. Small traders hold 83,737 long and 56,429 short contracts: 59.7% long. Week before: 19. A year before: 77. Three-year range: 0 to 100.
On 9 October 2026 small traders in CME euro FX futures were 59.7% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 30 out of 100 (leaning short), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).
- Data as of
- All markets
- Method
The contract behind the reading
- Contract
- CME euro FX futures
- CFTC contract code
- 099741
- Contract size
The unit of trading shall be 125,000 Euro
- A long position is
- a bet that the euro rises against the US dollar. The contract is priced in US dollars per EUR, so it moves with EUR/USD.
- In the composite
- Yes, in the futures half
Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in CME euro FX futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.
What today's reading means
Euro (EUR/USD) reads 30: small traders' long share is above about 30% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 27 February 2026. The last crowded-short week (20 or less) was 2 October 2026.
Record readings for Euro (EUR/USD)
- Highest Crowd Gauge reading
- 99.7
- Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
- 0.3
- Most long small traders have been
- 75.8% long
- Least long
- 25.6% long
How often Euro (EUR/USD) hits an extreme
| Band | Weeks | Share of weeks | Separate spells | Longest spell | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (80+) | 254 | 23% | 24 | 76 weeks, to 27 April 2018 | 27 February 2026 |
| Crowded short (20 or less) | 214 | 20% | 21 | 50 weeks, to 17 August 2012 | 2 October 2026 |
History
Last 12 weekly readings
| Released | Reading | Band | Change | Long | Short | Long share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.5 | Leaning short | +12 | 83,737 | 56,429 | 59.7% | |
| 18.9 | Crowded short | −1 | 80,065 | 57,386 | 58.3% | |
| 20.2 | Leaning short | +19 | 80,113 | 56,746 | 58.5% | |
| 1.0 | Crowded short | −47 | 188,399 | 161,616 | 53.8% | |
| 48.4 | Balanced | −2 | 92,781 | 56,895 | 62.0% | |
| 50.3 | Balanced | −6 | 85,670 | 52,018 | 62.2% | |
| 56.1 | Balanced | +2 | 86,807 | 50,895 | 63.0% | |
| 54.2 | Balanced | +10 | 86,443 | 51,410 | 62.7% | |
| 44.6 | Balanced | +13 | 82,886 | 52,079 | 61.4% | |
| 31.7 | Leaning short | +19 | 80,953 | 54,324 | 59.8% | |
| 13.1 | Crowded short | −5 | 78,549 | 57,816 | 57.6% | |
| 18.3 | Crowded short | −6 | 80,473 | 57,110 | 58.5% |
Did extreme Euro (EUR/USD) readings come before price moves?
| Period, horizon | After 80 or more | After 20 or less | All weeks | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 on, 1 week | -0.01% | 0.01% | -0.02% | 456 |
| 2018 on, 4 weeks | -0.04% | 0.24% | -0.06% | 453 |
| 2018 on, 12 weeks | -0.08% | 1.73% | -0.18% | 445 |
| 2006–2017, 1 week | 0.14% | -0.35% | -0.01% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 4 weeks | 0.56% | -1.09% | 0.01% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 12 weeks | 1.72% | -3.04% | 0.06% | 626 |
From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long Euro (EUR/USD) reading averaged -0.04%, against -0.06% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 0.24%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 12; crowded-short: 11.
History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.
Sources for Euro (EUR/USD)
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 099741). 1459 weekly reports since 15 January 1986.
- Forex sentiment: every currency
- Japanese yen (JPY/USD) 32/100
- British pound (GBP/USD) 4/100
- Swiss franc (CHF/USD) 20/100
- Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) 11/100
- Australian dollar (AUD/USD) 69/100
- New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) 35/100
- Mexican peso (MXN/USD) 32/100
- US dollar index 95/100