{ "method_version": "1.0", "pre_registration": "decisions/2026-10-14-crowd-gauge-method-v1.md", "rule": "Edge only if the 2018-latest pooled 4-week coefficient has |t| >= 2 and the same sign in 2006-2017.", "verdict": { "crowded_long": "edge", "crowded_short": "no reliable edge" }, "pooled": { "2006-2017": { "1w": { "n": 7509, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": -0.02, "t": -0.2 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.01, "t": 0.1 } } }, "4w": { "n": 7509, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.3, "t": 1.18 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.28, "t": 0.98 } } }, "12w": { "n": 7509, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.76, "t": 1.32 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.38, "t": 0.62 } } } }, "2018-latest": { "1w": { "n": 6102, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.1, "t": 0.63 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.08, "t": 0.29 } } }, "4w": { "n": 6062, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 1.0, "t": 2.54 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.96, "t": 1.49 } } }, "12w": { "n": 5956, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 1.47, "t": 1.6 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.83, "t": 0.69 } } } } }, "extra_check_ex_crypto": { "pre_registered": false, "note": "Same test with bitcoin and ether left out. Added after seeing the result; not part of the pre-registered rule.", "pooled": { "2006-2017": { "1w": { "n": 7509, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": -0.02, "t": -0.2 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.01, "t": 0.1 } } }, "4w": { "n": 7509, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.3, "t": 1.18 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.28, "t": 0.98 } } }, "12w": { "n": 7509, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.76, "t": 1.32 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.38, "t": 0.62 } } } }, "2018-latest": { "1w": { "n": 5474, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.1, "t": 0.61 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.09, "t": 0.31 } } }, "4w": { "n": 5438, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.7, "t": 1.97 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 1.04, "t": 1.58 } } }, "12w": { "n": 5342, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.74, "t": 0.97 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.98, "t": 0.87 } } } } } }, "markets": [ { "market": "sp500", "price_series": 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}, "leaning_short": { "n": 96, "mean_pct": -0.14 }, "balanced": { "n": 110, "mean_pct": -0.58 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 104, "mean_pct": -0.85 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 169, "mean_pct": 0.04 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 37.28, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 48.98, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.58, "t": 1.44 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.03, "t": 0.05 } } }, "12w": { "n": 626, "mean_all_pct": -1.12, "by_band": { "crowded_short": { "n": 147, "mean_pct": -1.01 }, "leaning_short": { "n": 96, "mean_pct": -1.99 }, "balanced": { "n": 110, "mean_pct": -2.58 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 104, "mean_pct": -0.33 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 169, "mean_pct": -0.25 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 34.91, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 48.98, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 1.39, "t": 1.45 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.63, "t": 0.46 } } } } }, "2018-latest": { "readings": 458, "crowded_long_episodes": 17, "crowded_short_episodes": 9, "horizons": { "1w": { "n": 456, "mean_all_pct": 0.01, "by_band": { "crowded_short": { "n": 73, "mean_pct": 0.23 }, "leaning_short": { "n": 73, "mean_pct": -0.23 }, "balanced": { "n": 92, "mean_pct": 0.08 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 118, "mean_pct": -0.04 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 100, "mean_pct": 0.04 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 41.0, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 56.16, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.09, "t": 0.51 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.28, "t": 1.14 } } }, "4w": { "n": 453, "mean_all_pct": 0.08, "by_band": { "crowded_short": { "n": 73, "mean_pct": 0.23 }, "leaning_short": { "n": 72, "mean_pct": 0.91 }, "balanced": { "n": 91, "mean_pct": 0.31 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 117, "mean_pct": -0.64 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 100, "mean_pct": -0.0 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 47.0, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 45.21, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": -0.07, "t": -0.13 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.17, "t": 0.23 } } }, "12w": { "n": 445, "mean_all_pct": 0.24, "by_band": { "crowded_short": { "n": 73, "mean_pct": 0.62 }, "leaning_short": { "n": 72, "mean_pct": 2.08 }, "balanced": { "n": 88, "mean_pct": 0.7 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 115, "mean_pct": -1.51 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 97, "mean_pct": 0.26 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 46.39, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 47.95, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 0.13, "t": 0.12 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.48, "t": 0.28 } } } } } } }, { "market": "bitcoin", "price_series": "CBBTCUSD", "inverted": false, "periods": { "2006-2017": { "readings": 0, "crowded_long_episodes": 0, "crowded_short_episodes": 0, "horizons": {} }, "2018-latest": { "readings": 393, "crowded_long_episodes": 9, "crowded_short_episodes": 9, "horizons": { "1w": { "n": 392, "mean_all_pct": 0.5, "by_band": { "crowded_short": { "n": 99, "mean_pct": 0.47 }, "leaning_short": { "n": 87, "mean_pct": -0.38 }, "balanced": { "n": 73, "mean_pct": -0.28 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 74, "mean_pct": 2.43 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 59, "mean_pct": 0.43 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 45.76, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 52.53, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": -0.11, "t": -0.07 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": -0.07, "t": -0.09 } } }, "4w": { "n": 390, "mean_all_pct": 2.11, "by_band": { "crowded_short": { "n": 99, "mean_pct": 1.11 }, "leaning_short": { "n": 87, "mean_pct": -2.25 }, "balanced": { "n": 72, "mean_pct": 0.83 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 73, "mean_pct": 4.24 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 59, "mean_pct": 9.12 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 33.9, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 41.41, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 8.37, "t": 2.16 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.36, "t": 0.14 } } }, "12w": { "n": 385, "mean_all_pct": 6.09, "by_band": { "crowded_short": { "n": 97, "mean_pct": -0.77 }, "leaning_short": { "n": 86, "mean_pct": 2.76 }, "balanced": { "n": 71, "mean_pct": 0.66 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 72, "mean_pct": 11.76 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 59, "mean_pct": 21.81 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 38.98, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 40.21, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 16.87, "t": 1.61 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": -5.7, "t": -0.83 } } } } } } }, { "market": "ether", "price_series": "CBETHUSD", "inverted": false, "periods": { "2006-2017": { "readings": 0, "crowded_long_episodes": 0, "crowded_short_episodes": 0, "horizons": {} }, "2018-latest": { "readings": 237, "crowded_long_episodes": 6, "crowded_short_episodes": 10, "horizons": { "1w": { "n": 236, "mean_all_pct": -0.11, "by_band": { "crowded_short": { "n": 53, "mean_pct": -0.18 }, "leaning_short": { "n": 56, "mean_pct": 0.86 }, "balanced": { "n": 61, "mean_pct": -1.49 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 42, "mean_pct": 0.14 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 24, "mean_pct": 0.84 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 54.17, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 62.26, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": 1.07, "t": 0.65 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.05, "t": 0.04 } } }, "4w": { "n": 234, "mean_all_pct": -0.22, "by_band": { "crowded_short": { "n": 53, "mean_pct": 0.64 }, "leaning_short": { "n": 56, "mean_pct": 2.22 }, "balanced": { "n": 60, "mean_pct": -0.93 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 41, "mean_pct": -2.75 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 24, "mean_pct": -1.7 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 58.33, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 52.83, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": -1.42, "t": -0.33 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 0.92, "t": 0.22 } } }, "12w": { "n": 229, "mean_all_pct": 0.03, "by_band": { "crowded_short": { "n": 52, "mean_pct": 8.31 }, "leaning_short": { "n": 55, "mean_pct": 4.34 }, "balanced": { "n": 58, "mean_pct": -5.06 }, "leaning_long": { "n": 40, "mean_pct": -7.33 }, "crowded_long": { "n": 24, "mean_pct": -3.17 } }, "fade_hit_rate_long_pct": 58.33, "fade_hit_rate_short_pct": 67.31, "regression": { "crowded_long": { "coef_pct": -0.9, "t": -0.08 }, "crowded_short": { "coef_pct": 10.58, "t": 1.54 } } } } } } } ], "not_tested": [ { "market": "russell-2000", "reason": "no free daily price series we can use" }, { "market": "gold", "reason": "no free daily price series we can use" }, { "market": "silver", "reason": "no free daily price series we can use" }, { "market": "copper", "reason": "no free daily price series we can use" }, { "market": "us-dollar-index", "reason": "no free daily price series we can use" }, { "market": "solana", "reason": "no free daily price series we can use" } ], "notes": [ "Returns are log returns from the first price on or after release date + 1 day.", "Pooled returns are each market's excess over its own mean; Newey-West lag = horizon in weeks.", "Prices: FRED (St. Louis Fed), used for this test only and not republished." ], "built_at": "2026-10-15T11:37:35Z", "data_as_of": "2026-10-09" }