WTI crude oil: are retail traders long or short?
WTI crude oil: 59/100, balanced. Small traders hold 77,189 long and 49,791 short contracts: 60.8% long. Week before: 77. A year before: 87. Three-year range: 0 to 100.
On 9 October 2026 small traders in NYMEX WTI light sweet crude futures were 60.8% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 59 out of 100 (balanced), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).
- Data as of
- All markets
- Method
The contract behind the reading
- Contract
- NYMEX WTI light sweet crude futures
- CFTC contract code
- 067651
- Contract size
The unit of trading shall be 1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 U.S. gallons)
- A long position is
- a bet that the WTI crude oil price rises.
- In the composite
- Yes, in the futures half
Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in NYMEX WTI light sweet crude futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.
What today's reading means
WTI crude oil reads 59: small traders' long share is above about 59% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 28 August 2026. The last crowded-short week (20 or less) was 16 January 2026.
Record readings for WTI crude oil
- Highest Crowd Gauge reading
- 99.7
- Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
- 0.3
- Most long small traders have been
- 69.6% long
- Least long
- 39.1% long
How often WTI crude oil hits an extreme
| Band | Weeks | Share of weeks | Separate spells | Longest spell | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (80+) | 331 | 31% | 31 | 35 weeks, to 23 July 2021 | 28 August 2026 |
| Crowded short (20 or less) | 203 | 19% | 37 | 14 weeks, to 13 June 2025 | 16 January 2026 |
History
Last 12 weekly readings
| Released | Reading | Band | Change | Long | Short | Long share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.3 | Balanced | −17 | 77,189 | 49,791 | 60.8% | |
| 76.6 | Leaning long | +8 | 79,850 | 46,695 | 63.1% | |
| 68.3 | Leaning long | +12 | 76,346 | 47,563 | 61.6% | |
| 56.1 | Balanced | +2 | 84,298 | 55,345 | 60.4% | |
| 54.2 | Balanced | ±0 | 86,874 | 57,268 | 60.3% | |
| 54.2 | Balanced | −30 | 76,748 | 50,654 | 60.2% | |
| 84.3 | Crowded long | +7 | 74,646 | 41,849 | 64.1% | |
| 77.2 | Leaning long | +1 | 75,108 | 44,111 | 63.0% | |
| 76.6 | Leaning long | −20 | 75,349 | 44,908 | 62.7% | |
| 96.5 | Crowded long | +1 | 80,311 | 38,979 | 67.3% | |
| 95.8 | Crowded long | +34 | 77,797 | 39,083 | 66.6% | |
| 61.9 | Leaning long | +15 | 77,077 | 50,165 | 60.6% |
Did extreme WTI crude oil readings come before price moves?
| Period, horizon | After 80 or more | After 20 or less | All weeks | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 on, 1 week | 0.17% | 0.50% | 0.14% | 456 |
| 2018 on, 4 weeks | 2.14% | 0.68% | 0.66% | 453 |
| 2018 on, 12 weeks | 1.70% | 1.74% | 1.27% | 445 |
| 2006–2017, 1 week | 0.04% | -0.28% | -0.03% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 4 weeks | 1.22% | -0.97% | -0.16% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 12 weeks | 3.33% | -2.23% | -0.09% | 626 |
From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long WTI crude oil reading averaged 2.14%, against 0.66% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 0.68%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 15; crowded-short: 13.
History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.
Sources for WTI crude oil
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 067651). 1935 weekly reports since 15 January 1986.
- Natural gas 64/100