Natural gas: are retail traders long or short?
Natural gas: 64/100, leaning long. Small traders hold 55,149 long and 38,557 short contracts: 58.9% long. Week before: 69. A year before: 9. Three-year range: 0 to 82.
On 9 October 2026 small traders in NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures were 58.9% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 64 out of 100 (leaning long), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).
- Data as of
- All markets
- Method
The contract behind the reading
- Contract
- NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures
- CFTC contract code
- 023651
- A long position is
- a bet that the natural gas price rises.
- In the composite
- No: its own reading only
Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures. It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.
What today's reading means
Natural gas reads 64: small traders' long share is above about 64% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-long week (80+) was 10 April 2026. The last crowded-short week (20 or less) was 28 August 2026.
Record readings for Natural gas
- Highest Crowd Gauge reading
- 99.7
- Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
- 0.3
- Most long small traders have been
- 76.4% long
- Least long
- 49.4% long
How often Natural gas hits an extreme
| Band | Weeks | Share of weeks | Separate spells | Longest spell | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (80+) | 164 | 15% | 24 | 31 weeks, to 4 July 2014 | 10 April 2026 |
| Crowded short (20 or less) | 304 | 28% | 42 | 43 weeks, to 17 January 2025 | 28 August 2026 |
History
Last 12 weekly readings
| Released | Reading | Band | Change | Long | Short | Long share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63.8 | Leaning long | −5 | 55,149 | 38,557 | 58.9% | |
| 68.9 | Leaning long | +38 | 55,372 | 37,855 | 59.4% | |
| 31.1 | Leaning short | −13 | 56,375 | 43,369 | 56.5% | |
| 43.9 | Balanced | −23 | 56,533 | 41,698 | 57.6% | |
| 67.0 | Leaning long | +19 | 60,575 | 41,934 | 59.1% | |
| 48.4 | Balanced | +33 | 56,838 | 41,359 | 57.9% | |
| 15.1 | Crowded short | −30 | 57,250 | 47,055 | 54.9% | |
| 45.2 | Balanced | −15 | 56,829 | 41,652 | 57.7% | |
| 60.6 | Leaning long | +43 | 55,215 | 38,757 | 58.8% | |
| 17.6 | Crowded short | −5 | 54,374 | 44,042 | 55.3% | |
| 22.8 | Leaning short | −1 | 54,656 | 43,521 | 55.7% | |
| 23.4 | Leaning short | −6 | 57,672 | 45,636 | 55.8% |
Did extreme Natural gas readings come before price moves?
| Period, horizon | After 80 or more | After 20 or less | All weeks | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 on, 1 week | 0.51% | -0.23% | -0.13% | 456 |
| 2018 on, 4 weeks | 2.18% | 4.25% | -0.04% | 453 |
| 2018 on, 12 weeks | 4.60% | 1.04% | -0.05% | 445 |
| 2006–2017, 1 week | -1.68% | 0.82% | -0.08% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 4 weeks | -3.77% | 3.66% | 0.01% | 626 |
| 2006–2017, 12 weeks | -9.09% | 5.73% | -0.77% | 626 |
From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long Natural gas reading averaged 2.18%, against -0.04% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 4.25%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 6; crowded-short: 19.
History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.
Sources for Natural gas
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 023651). 1834 weekly reports since 12 April 1990.
- WTI crude oil 59/100