Bitcoin: are retail traders long or short?
Bitcoin: 83/100, crowded long. Small traders hold 1,177 long and 711 short contracts: 62.3% long. Week before: 66. A year before: 42. Three-year range: 1 to 85.
On 9 October 2026 small traders in CME bitcoin and micro bitcoin futures (Bybit/Binance BTCUSDT once eligible) were 62.3% long, a Crowd Gauge reading of 83 out of 100 (crowded long), according to TradingLookup's Crowd Gauge (October 2026).
- Data as of
- All markets
- Method
The contract behind the reading
- Contract
- CME bitcoin and micro bitcoin futures (Bybit/Binance BTCUSDT once eligible)
- CFTC contract code
- 133741
- CFTC contract code
- 133742
- A long position is
- a bet that the bitcoin price rises.
- In the composite
- Yes, in the crypto half
Positioning, not price. "Small traders" are everyone below the CFTC's reporting size ("non-reportable"): the closest public measure of retail positioning in CME bitcoin and micro bitcoin futures (Bybit/Binance BTCUSDT once eligible). It also holds some small firms, so treat it as a proxy.
What today's reading means
Bitcoin reads 83: small traders' long share is above about 83% of the last 156 weekly readings in this contract. The last crowded-short week (20 or less) was 28 August 2026.
Record readings for Bitcoin
- Highest Crowd Gauge reading
- 99.6
- Lowest Crowd Gauge reading
- 0.3
- Most long small traders have been
- 89.3% long
- Least long
- 37.8% long
How often Bitcoin hits an extreme
| Band | Weeks | Share of weeks | Separate spells | Longest spell | Most recent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long (80+) | 60 | 15% | 9 | 16 weeks, to 19 July 2019 | 9 October 2026 |
| Crowded short (20 or less) | 99 | 25% | 9 | 46 weeks, to 30 September 2022 | 28 August 2026 |
History
Last 12 weekly readings
| Released | Reading | Band | Change | Long | Short | Long share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83.0 | Crowded long | +17 | 1,177 | 711 | 62.3% | |
| 66.4 | Leaning long | +13 | 1,109 | 804 | 58.0% | |
| 52.9 | Balanced | +20 | 1,284 | 931 | 58.0% | |
| 33.0 | Leaning short | −34 | 1,021 | 832 | 55.1% | |
| 66.7 | Leaning long | +26 | 1,273 | 736 | 63.4% | |
| 40.7 | Balanced | +24 | 1,187 | 813 | 59.4% | |
| 16.4 | Crowded short | +10 | 1,121 | 1,280 | 46.7% | |
| 6.4 | Crowded short | +2 | 705 | 993 | 41.5% | |
| 4.5 | Crowded short | +3 | 778 | 1,088 | 41.7% | |
| 1.3 | Crowded short | −4 | 652 | 1,072 | 37.8% | |
| 5.5 | Crowded short | −5 | 722 | 1,064 | 40.4% | |
| 10.6 | Crowded short | +5 | 793 | 861 | 47.9% |
Did extreme Bitcoin readings come before price moves?
| Period, horizon | After 80 or more | After 20 or less | All weeks | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 on, 1 week | 0.43% | 0.47% | 0.50% | 392 |
| 2018 on, 4 weeks | 9.12% | 1.11% | 2.11% | 390 |
| 2018 on, 12 weeks | 21.81% | -0.77% | 6.09% | 385 |
From 2018, the 4 weeks after a crowded-long Bitcoin reading averaged 9.12%, against 2.11% for all weeks; after a crowded-short reading, 1.11%. Separate crowded-long episodes in that period: 9; crowded-short: 9.
History, not a forecast. Small samples swing a lot, and one market proves little. The pooled result across markets is on the method page.
Sources for Bitcoin
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 133741). 444 weekly reports since 10 April 2018.
- CFTC COT (small traders)In the reading (contract code 133742). 284 weekly reports since 4 May 2021.
- bybit:BTCUSDTBTCUSDT: Not collected yet.
- binance:BTCUSDTBTCUSDT: Not collected yet.
- Crypto Crowd Fear & Greed
- Ether 68/100