{
  "title": "CFD loss-rate series",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "as_of": "2026-10-06",
  "count": 31,
  "fetched_from": "UK",
  "regulators": {
    "BaFin": 1,
    "CySEC": 6,
    "FCA": 22,
    "Not confirmed": 2
  },
  "median_pct": 73.46,
  "mean_pct": 70.4,
  "min": {
    "pct": 51.0,
    "brokers": [
      "eToro"
    ]
  },
  "max": {
    "pct": 84.0,
    "brokers": [
      "Libertex"
    ]
  },
  "fca_only": {
    "count": 22,
    "median_pct": 71.8,
    "mean_pct": 70.41,
    "min_pct": 55.0,
    "max_pct": 78.23
  },
  "headline": "On 6 October 2026 (7 figures updated on 13 October 2026), the median CFD provider in our set said 73.46% of its retail accounts lose money, across 31 CFD providers whose sites we read from the UK (range 51% to 84%; the 51% figure is eToro's, whose legal entity we haven't confirmed). Provisional: an independent automated second read on 13 October 2026 matched 16 of 31 figures.",
  "release_status": "provisional",
  "second_read": {
    "date": "2026-10-13",
    "what": "Independent automated second read of each source page (not a person). Honest user agent, robots.txt respected, no bot-wall bypass.",
    "fetched_from": "the build environment in the US (Ohio), not the UK",
    "evidence": "data/raw/evidence-archive/cfd-reread/2026-10-13",
    "counts": {
      "match": 16,
      "changed": 0,
      "not_found": 5,
      "blocked": 10,
      "none": 0
    },
    "changed": []
  },
  "human_checked": 0,
  "regulator_source": "Our own list (scripts/cfd_brokers.csv); not yet checked on the FCA, CySEC, BaFin or CBI registers.",
  "register_checked": 0,
  "regulator_unconfirmed": [
    "eToro",
    "AvaTrade"
  ],
  "warning_text_mismatches": [],
  "change_vs_earliest_history": [
    {
      "broker": "eToro",
      "slug": "etoro",
      "live_pct": 51.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q4",
      "earliest_pct": 65.0,
      "change_points": -14.0,
      "history_quarters": 14,
      "history_flags": [
        "entity unclear"
      ]
    },
    {
      "broker": "Tickmill",
      "slug": "tickmill",
      "live_pct": 68.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2019-Q1",
      "earliest_pct": 81.0,
      "change_points": -13.0,
      "history_quarters": 21,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "FXCM UK",
      "slug": "fxcm-uk",
      "live_pct": 67.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q3",
      "earliest_pct": 79.79,
      "change_points": -12.79,
      "history_quarters": 32,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "CMC Markets",
      "slug": "cmc-markets",
      "live_pct": 69.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q3",
      "earliest_pct": 78.0,
      "change_points": -9.0,
      "history_quarters": 31,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "IG",
      "slug": "ig",
      "live_pct": 70.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q3",
      "earliest_pct": 79.0,
      "change_points": -9.0,
      "history_quarters": 32,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Saxo",
      "slug": "saxo",
      "live_pct": 61.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q3",
      "earliest_pct": 69.0,
      "change_points": -8.0,
      "history_quarters": 34,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Spreadex",
      "slug": "spreadex",
      "live_pct": 61.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q3",
      "earliest_pct": 67.0,
      "change_points": -6.0,
      "history_quarters": 33,
      "history_flags": [
        "same figure 6 quarters running (page may not have been updated)"
      ]
    },
    {
      "broker": "AvaTrade",
      "slug": "avatrade",
      "live_pct": 65.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q4",
      "earliest_pct": 71.0,
      "change_points": -6.0,
      "history_quarters": 12,
      "history_flags": [
        "entity unclear",
        "same figure 12 quarters running (page may not have been updated)"
      ]
    },
    {
      "broker": "Forex.com",
      "slug": "forex-com",
      "live_pct": 74.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q3",
      "earliest_pct": 80.0,
      "change_points": -6.0,
      "history_quarters": 22,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Trading 212",
      "slug": "trading-212",
      "live_pct": 74.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q3",
      "earliest_pct": 80.0,
      "change_points": -6.0,
      "history_quarters": 13,
      "history_flags": [
        "same figure 10 quarters running (page may not have been updated)"
      ]
    },
    {
      "broker": "XTB",
      "slug": "xtb",
      "live_pct": 74.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q3",
      "earliest_pct": 80.0,
      "change_points": -6.0,
      "history_quarters": 33,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Swissquote",
      "slug": "swissquote",
      "live_pct": 78.23,
      "earliest_quarter": "2025-Q2",
      "earliest_pct": 82.48,
      "change_points": -4.25,
      "history_quarters": 6,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "FxPro",
      "slug": "fxpro",
      "live_pct": 75.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2018-Q3",
      "earliest_pct": 79.0,
      "change_points": -4.0,
      "history_quarters": 29,
      "history_flags": [
        "15 of 29 archived pages show two different figures"
      ]
    },
    {
      "broker": "Pepperstone",
      "slug": "pepperstone",
      "live_pct": 73.6,
      "earliest_quarter": "2020-Q2",
      "earliest_pct": 76.5,
      "change_points": -2.9,
      "history_quarters": 24,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "IC Markets EU",
      "slug": "ic-markets-eu",
      "live_pct": 73.46,
      "earliest_quarter": "2021-Q2",
      "earliest_pct": 75.0,
      "change_points": -1.54,
      "history_quarters": 23,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "City Index",
      "slug": "city-index",
      "live_pct": 68.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2022-Q2",
      "earliest_pct": 69.0,
      "change_points": -1.0,
      "history_quarters": 17,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Plus500",
      "slug": "plus500",
      "live_pct": 76.0,
      "earliest_quarter": "2022-Q1",
      "earliest_pct": 73.0,
      "change_points": 3.0,
      "history_quarters": 8,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Markets.com",
      "slug": "markets-com",
      "live_pct": 81.9,
      "earliest_quarter": "2020-Q2",
      "earliest_pct": 74.93,
      "change_points": 6.97,
      "history_quarters": 20,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Darwinex",
      "slug": "darwinex",
      "live_pct": 55.0,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Capital.com",
      "slug": "capital-com",
      "live_pct": 65.0,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "FXCM Europe",
      "slug": "fxcm-europe",
      "live_pct": 65.0,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Skilling",
      "slug": "skilling",
      "live_pct": 65.0,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Axi",
      "slug": "axi",
      "live_pct": 67.7,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "ActivTrades",
      "slug": "activtrades",
      "live_pct": 69.0,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Trade Nation",
      "slug": "trade-nation",
      "live_pct": 73.8,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "IG EU",
      "slug": "ig-eu",
      "live_pct": 74.0,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Pepperstone EU",
      "slug": "pepperstone-eu",
      "live_pct": 74.1,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "ThinkMarkets",
      "slug": "thinkmarkets",
      "live_pct": 75.0,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "OANDA",
      "slug": "oanda",
      "live_pct": 76.6,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Eightcap",
      "slug": "eightcap",
      "live_pct": 78.0,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    },
    {
      "broker": "Libertex",
      "slug": "libertex",
      "live_pct": 84.0,
      "earliest_quarter": null,
      "earliest_pct": null,
      "change_points": null,
      "history_quarters": 0,
      "history_flags": []
    }
  ],
  "excluded_no_figure": [
    {
      "broker": "Admirals",
      "status": "no_match",
      "landed_on": "https://www.admiralmarkets.co.uk"
    },
    {
      "broker": "Interactive Brokers",
      "status": "no_validation",
      "landed_on": "https://www.interactivebrokers.co.uk"
    },
    {
      "broker": "Vantage",
      "status": "no_match",
      "landed_on": "https://www.vantage.com"
    },
    {
      "broker": "XM",
      "status": "error: Page.goto: Timeout 45000ms exceeded.",
      "landed_on": "https://www.xm.com/eu"
    },
    {
      "broker": "FP Markets",
      "status": "no_match",
      "landed_on": "https://www.fpmarkets.com/au/"
    },
    {
      "broker": "Freedom24",
      "status": "no_match",
      "landed_on": "https://freedom24.co.uk"
    },
    {
      "broker": "Hantec Markets",
      "status": "no_match",
      "landed_on": "https://www.hantecmarkets.com"
    }
  ],
  "notes": [
    "Every figure is measured: the broker's own mandated risk warning, read from its website from the UK on the as_of date.",
    "Change vs earliest history compares today's live figure with the first archived (Wayback) figure; the live page and the archived page are not always the same URL. Brokers with history_flags should not be used in comparisons.",
    "Figures are trailing 12 months and refreshed quarterly by each firm.",
    "Regulator comes from our own list of firms, not yet checked on a regulator's register. Where the legal entity is not confirmed, the regulator is 'Not confirmed' and the row is left out of the regulator split and fca_only."
  ],
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0"
}